Aliko Dangote’s Bold Vision: Refinery Set to Skyrocket to 1.4 Million BPD Capacity by 2028!

Refinery to hit 1.4m bpd output by 2028 - Aliko Dangote

Dangote Group Announces Major Refinery Expansion, Aiming for 2026 NGX Listing

The Dangote Group is embarking on a transformative project to more than double its current refining output, scaling from 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) to an ambitious 1.4 million bpd within the next three years. This expansion will position it as the largest single-site refinery globally.

Aliko Dangote, the Group’s Chairman, highlighted that this bold initiative reflects a deep confidence in Nigeria’s economic trajectory and Africa’s industrial advancement.

“Our plan is to increase the Dangote refinery capacity from 650,000 barrels daily to 1.4 million barrels per day,” Dangote stated. “This will eclipse the Jamnagar refinery in India, making ours the largest refinery located on a single site worldwide.”

He further noted that this expansion aligns perfectly with President Boda Ambitunu’s vision to transform Nigeria into a premier exporter of refined petroleum products across Africa and beyond.

“This project embodies our steadfast belief in Nigeria’s future, Africa’s manufacturing potential, and our commitment to achieving energy independence for the continent and global markets,” Dangote added.

Timeline and Investment Overview

In response to media questions, Dangote confirmed that the refinery upgrade is slated for completion within three years. He explained that much of the essential infrastructure was integrated during the initial build, which will accelerate the current expansion.

“We expect to complete this phase in three years,” he said. “The foundational elements, including the port and Single Point Mooring (SPM) facilities, are already in place, so there’s no need for additional land reclamation or dredging. Our prior experience will help speed up the process,” he remarked.

Although he did not disclose exact figures, Dangote assured that the financial scope has been thoroughly assessed internally. The original refinery, with a 650,000 bpd capacity, reportedly required an investment of approximately $20 billion.

“We have a comprehensive understanding of the capital needed,” he confirmed.

The expansion will incorporate a parallel processing line within the existing complex, allowing the refinery to maintain operations even during maintenance periods.

“By installing a duplicate processing line, we can operate at 50 percent capacity while one line undergoes maintenance,” Dangote explained.

Securing Steady Crude Oil Supply

Addressing concerns about crude oil availability, Dangote acknowledged previous challenges in feedstock procurement but expressed optimism that recent government policies will ensure a reliable domestic supply.

“At 650,000 barrels per day, sourcing feedstock was difficult,” he admitted. “However, the President has implemented clear policies. I am confident the government will limit crude exports while refineries remain idle domestically.”

He likened the situation to a scenario where a country exports raw agricultural products but imports the finished goods, which is economically counterproductive.

“It’s akin to a nation exporting raw coffee beans while importing roasted coffee,” Dangote observed. “I believe these policies will drive meaningful change.”

Currently, Nigeria’s crude oil production stands at about 1.8 million bpd, with government targets aiming for 2.4 million bpd-a volume Dangote believes will adequately support both local refining and export demands.

“If production reaches 2.4 million bpd, supply will be sufficient,” he noted. “Ultimately, it depends on investment and effective policy enforcement.”

Economic Impact and Emphasis on Local Content

The refinery’s expansion is expected to create over 65,000 jobs during construction and will more than double polypropylene output from 900,000 metric tonnes to 2.4 million tonnes annually.

Moreover, the refinery will upgrade its fuel quality from Euro 5 to Euro 6 standards, aligning with the highest international environmental regulations.

“Over 85 percent of our workforce will be Nigerian, with ongoing investments in skills development and technology transfer,” Dangote emphasized. “Our goal extends beyond refining oil; it’s about generating opportunities for our people.”

Power generation capacity at the site will also increase from 500 megawatts to 1,000 megawatts, ensuring a reliable energy supply for the refinery and surrounding industries.

Encouraging Industry Collaboration and Government Partnership

Dangote called on other investors to collaborate with the federal government in expanding Nigeria’s refining sector, stressing that healthy competition will strengthen the industry.

“There is often debate about government-owned refineries,” he said. “Investors with significant capital should consider building or acquiring refineries to prevent monopolistic dominance.”

He mentioned ongoing discussions between some companies and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited aimed at revitalizing dormant refineries through strategic partnerships.

“Building a $1 trillion economy requires collective effort. We are doing our part, and others must join,” Dangote concluded.

Plans for Stock Market Listing and Fuel Market Stability

Looking ahead, Dangote confirmed plans to list the refinery and petrochemical complex on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) within the next year, allowing Nigerians to become shareholders.

“We want every Nigerian to have the opportunity to own a stake in this refinery,” he said. “This refinery belongs to the Nigerian people.”

He also assured that the refinery will play a crucial role in stabilizing fuel supply and pricing nationwide, especially during high-demand periods such as festive seasons.

“For the first time in many years, Nigerians can expect a holiday season without fuel shortages,” Dangote stated. “Our refinery guarantees consistent prices and premium-quality fuel.”

He expressed gratitude to the federal and Lagos State governments, host communities, and financial partners for their unwavering support, describing the expansion as a testament to confidence in Nigeria’s leadership and potential.

“This project is more than just an increase in capacity; it symbolizes trust in our people, our nation’s leadership, and Africa’s future,” Dangote concluded. “Together, we are building a stronger Nigeria and reshaping Africa’s prospects.”

Oladehinde Oladipo

Dipo Oladehinde is a seasoned energy analyst with expertise in Nigeria’s energy sector and macroeconomic trends. He leverages market insights, financial acumen, and industry knowledge to deliver comprehensive analysis of local and global developments, aiding strategic policymaking and informed decision-making.