Nigeria‘s economic trajectory will hinge not merely on its abundant natural resources but on the robustness, adaptability, and strategic alignment of its supply chains. As Africa’s most populous country and largest economy, Nigeria occupies a pivotal role in the continent’s ongoing economic transformation. The critical question now is not if Nigeria will spearhead Africa’s trade revival, but whether it can design and implement the frameworks necessary to do so effectively.
With the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) now in effect, Nigeria stands at a crossroads, poised to transition from a predominantly consumption-based economy to a dynamic hub for manufacturing and exports. The AfCFTA unites 55 nations and over 1.4 billion people, presenting a potential intra-African trade market valued at $1 trillion by 2035. However, sheer market size is insufficient without a deliberate and cohesive strategy. Nigeria must cultivate the institutional capacity, infrastructure, and policy coherence to lead this continental resurgence rather than merely participate.
Under the stewardship of Dr. Jumoke Oduwole, the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment (FMITI) has laid down a promising blueprint. The Ministry’s vision for 2025 emphasizes economic diversification, industrial growth, and enhancing global competitiveness. Programs such as accessible soft loans for MSMEs across 776 local government areas, revitalization of export processing zones, and the adoption of digital trade protocols aligned with AfCFTA objectives demonstrate clear commitment. Dr. Oduwole’s ambition to foster a “dynamic, resilient, and sustainable economy” reflects a nuanced grasp of Nigeria’s vast potential. Her efforts to broaden bilateral trade ties with countries like Brazil, India, and the UAE, alongside championing digital trade facilitation, deserve recognition.
Yet, ambition must be matched by tangible results. Nigeria’s logistics expenses remain disproportionately high, consuming up to 30% of product costs-far exceeding the global average of 8-15%. Persistent challenges such as customs inefficiencies, fragmented transport infrastructure, and regulatory hurdles continue to erode the country’s competitive edge. Despite the Ministry’s strategic roadmap, Nigeria still lacks a comprehensive, supply chain-centric policy that harmonizes trade, transportation, and industrial development into a unified framework.
A useful comparison can be drawn from China’s evolution into the “world’s manufacturing powerhouse.” From 1980 to 2020, China lifted over 800 million people out of poverty, largely through manufacturing-led expansion. Its regional industrial clusters-the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, and Bohai Economic Rim-specialized respectively in electronics, textiles, and heavy industries. These zones benefited from targeted economic incentives, massive infrastructure investments (exceeding $1.3 trillion in transport infrastructure between 2010 and 2020), and export-driven policies that integrated local production with global supply chains.
Nigeria could emulate this approach by establishing regional industrial corridors tailored to its strengths: Lagos-Ibadan for consumer goods manufacturing, Kano-Kaduna for agro-processing industries, and Port Harcourt-Calabar for petrochemical and energy sectors. Achieving this vision demands synchronized policy efforts, dependable infrastructure, and focused capital deployment.
Meanwhile, other African nations are already carving out niches as regional supply chain hubs. Morocco has emerged as a leading automotive manufacturing center, producing over 700,000 vehicles annually with major plants from Renault and Stellantis. Ethiopia’s Hawassa Industrial Park attracts textile producers by offering low energy costs and streamlined customs procedures. Kenya is developing the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) Corridor to enhance East African trade connectivity. South Africa continues to dominate automotive and mining supply chains, with more than 60% of its exports destined for other African markets.
Despite its large domestic market, Nigeria ranks 131st on the World Bank’s 2023 Logistics Performance Index, trailing behind Kenya (68th), Morocco (79th), and Ghana (120th). The threat of being outpaced by regional competitors is tangible. To reclaim leadership in Africa’s supply chain evolution, Nigeria must institutionalize action across five critical domains: development of regional value chains, modernization of infrastructure, digital innovation, institutional reform, and integration of sustainability principles. Identifying and nurturing sector-specific clusters-such as agro-processing in the North, pharmaceuticals in the South-West, and energy in the South-South-is essential. Accelerating infrastructure projects like the Lekki Deep Sea Port, Kano-Maradi Railway, and inland dry ports, while prioritizing last-mile logistics and renewable energy solutions, will be vital. Embracing digital technologies-blockchain-enabled customs clearance, AI-powered demand forecasting, and intelligent warehousing-can significantly enhance efficiency. Nigeria’s burgeoning digital economy, projected to reach $180 billion by 2025, represents a strategic advantage that must be fully harnessed.
Equally important is comprehensive institutional reform. Trade, transport, and industrial policies need to be integrated under a cohesive national strategy. Strengthening agencies such as Customs, the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA), and the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) is crucial-not only in terms of authority but also operational effectiveness. Expanding public-private partnerships can accelerate infrastructure development, while development finance institutions should craft innovative financial instruments to mitigate risks associated with industrial investments.
Embedding Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) standards into logistics and manufacturing sectors is imperative. Global investors increasingly prioritize supply chains that are low-carbon and socially responsible. Collaborating with organizations like the International Finance Corporation (IFC) to develop Nigeria’s carbon market will enhance the country’s competitiveness and attract sustainable investment.
Dr. Oduwole’s leadership has set the stage, but what Nigeria requires now is a dedicated, practitioner-driven platform-a national supply chain think tank that continuously informs policy, steers investment, and drives implementation. This entity should operate year-round, delivering quarterly analyses, policy recommendations, and investment strategies tailored to Nigeria’s evolving trade environment. Nigeria’s prosperity will be determined not by what it safeguards, but by the connections it forges. The moment to design that future is upon us.
Emeka Eboagwu – CMILT, fACSC, Doctoral Researcher, School of Management – Cranfield University, Bedford, United Kingdom